[1737 FLUFFY THE CAT
The other day I was going to write a post on the Greek debt crisis- the silly yoyo that the markets have been rising and falling on. At the end of last week the market fell- because a few top financial guys were seriously talking about letting Greece default.
Then the next few days there was ‘hope’ that they were all going to work things out. Then before I got the chance to post- yes- another market downturn- there was buzz that the Germans were feeling uneasy.
The silly thing about all this- is the facts are the facts. Will Greece go insolvent- probably yes. They are about 500 billion dollars in debt [a lot] and after all the promised bailout money- from their central bank system [much like our fed] they are only on their second bailout payment [around 130 billion or so] and the other stronger economies in the Euro Zone are wanting to bail.
Why? I have covered this before- but you basically have a situation- much like our own countries bailout- where certain European nations have gotten in debt over their heads- and when the danger of private investors- who bought all these bonds from these countries- when they see the possibility of losing their fortunes- they sound the bell ‘the world is falling apart- quick- bail us out’.
Now- is the world falling apart? For these Wall Street folk- yes indeed. That’s why they panic. When we bailed out Wall Street and the banks in our country- many of these insider financial guys who warned the president [s] about the danger- these guys were also in peril of losing their money.
All their friends/families- everything they have- would have been lost if the banks and markets collapsed. So what did we do? The nation covered the losses [for men like Buffet- who keep saying how guilty they feel about their low tax rate. Maybe this is part of the guilt- you think?]
Now- in the Greek crisis- that’s exactly what the Germans [the strongest Euro Zone economy- the U.K. is not part of the Euro Zone] are saying. They want the private investors to take a greater loss- before they spend their own tax payer’s money on a bailout. Many are now openly questioning whether or not Greece should just go belly up- and take the hit.
I read a piece in the N.Y. Times the other day- the headline was ‘Should Greece default on its debt’.
So some are beginning to catch on here.
You have had other Sovereigns default- Argentina, Russia, etc.- yet their debt was around 80 billion at the time. Greece’s debt is 500 billion- so the default could be systemic- it could affect Italy and some other struggling economies- the European banks would also take around a 400 billion dollar hit- so it could be a big problem.
Okay- why mention this? No matter what any single person says- or some European financial guy quits [like last week] none of this will change the facts on the ground. If the other Euro Zone nations are already balking at this second Payment to Greece- then that means most of the ‘insiders’ are beginning to think that they might as well let Greece default- and just take the hit.
Some felt [and still feel] that when we bailed out companies and banks- out of fear that we can’t allow ‘too big to fail’ fail- that we simply prolonged the pain.
This next year- our country is going to suffer. Lots of the bailout money that was spent [the 800 billion stimulus- plus the actual bailout] was spent simply propping up the states budgets for the last few years. Now- the states are going to have to cut back- lots- this next year- the moneys gone.
The housing market is still bad- the system has not bottomed and cleared out the hit from the bubble- and we did things to ‘stall the pain’ okay- now we are paying for that.
So- all the financial gurus talking about ‘hold on’ or investors hanging on the words of one guy- is nonsense. All these macro problems- still left in the system- they are not going away so easily.
I heard a British trader give a BBC interview the other day- he shocked the audience. He said all the insider traders have fled Greek debt- and any other investments associated with European debt- and they are preparing for a sort of mini European depression.
Now- he talked for about 5 minutes [the parts I heard] and much of what he was saying- I believe to be honest- that the insiders often do the opposite of what they tell the public.
After his interview- the BBC came out and said he was ‘a plant’- a Plant? From where? They said he was one of those ‘doom and gloom’ guys- who really wants to scare people- so he can profit off of it later.
Look- I have no idea how legitimate the guy was- but I knew much of what he said was true- and the truth is- the insiders often don’t want the general public to know certain things- and they don’t tell them either!
How gullible are we? A few years ago one of the history channels began promoting a major upcoming event. They were going to once and for all- reveal the true Missing Link. They supposedly found the fossil that would prove Evolution was true. Now- they spent a lot on the promo’s- and as they built up the thing- at the end of the promo- there it was- an actual picture of the fossil that would turn the whole world on its head.
When I saw the actual fossil- I laughed openly. Sort of like when Will Ferrell tells Christina Applegate [Anchorman] ‘When you told me you too wanted to be an anchor man- I wrote it in my journal- I said ‘she told me a very funny thing- I am laughing’. [You know the comedy is based on the good ole boy network].
So as I watched the ad every few days- yes- I laughed- openly.
Why? Because anyone who knows anything about the whole debate on Evolution can tell you- that’s not what ANYBODY is looking for.
Sure- this cat like fossil might be of use somewhere- but in the Missing Link debate- it had no use.
Now- as I mocked the thing- at work- at home- every time I saw it- I would be doubted by some ‘John- how do you know that’s not the Link- are you smarter than the scientists’.
People believe what the media tells/shows them- and they allow themselves to be duped- lots. After a few months of the pathetic fluffy fossil making the rounds- they finally pulled the whole show.
Why? As I read a few science articles about it- as the months passed- many of the ‘other’ scientists [those who were not profiting directly form the thing] also laughed- yes just like me- just like Burgundy- yes they laughed too.
Why- they said what I said- that what this silly cat fossil has to do with a missing link between man and monkey- well it was foolish.
The channel dropped the whole show- the scientist who did indeed by the fossil for a lot of money [it was around for a while- but no one wanted to purchase it] yes- they all had personal reasons to want people to think a certain way- if they believed that this thing was truly historical- then they would make money.
And they labeled the critics- initially- as those silly creationists who deny science. Yet the facts were- science was on the side of those who laughed at Fluffy- I’m sure she was a nice pet- but a missing link? Not.
I have another article here that I wanted to cover- the same basic thing- about a British Atlas that fudged the amount of ice that has melted off Iceland- they had fake pictures and all- finally the scientific community came out quickly to debunk it- they did not want another fiasco like the fake global warming story a few years back.
The whole point is- people have agendas- the financial guys have agendas- those in the media- they have agendas. Are all of these people wrong? Of course not- do I too have an agenda? Sure- we all do.
But as you read/watch the news- as you make judgments on ‘what is true and what is false’ don’t always go with the flow- the initial thing that your ‘told’ to believe- sometimes they want you to believe- they might even think that their deception is noble ‘geez- we know it’s not really true- but in the end it will be better for us all’.
Yet- it would be better for us all- if we simply got the facts- and did not have to wade thru all the bias.
I don’t know what the European debt crisis will end up like- nor does anyone else. But for the market to be doing these 500 point swings- from one day to the next- based on what Angela Merkle says- or some financial guy- well that’s silly.
The facts are the facts- they are not changing that much from week to week [or day to day!]- not enough for the market to swing like that.
Are we going to have a double dip recession? It sure looks that way too me. Did I think this a year ago- no. Why? The signs looked a lot better then- the last few months- for a lot of reasons- they don’t look so good.
We don’t need to hear what Bernanke says [that much] or what Buffet thinks- we can read the broad indicators- and see for ourselves.
Look- for a few months I was laughing at the cat fossil- even at the risk of my buddies thinking ‘John- he’s one of those creationists who rejects science- how sad’. Then after the truth came out- at the end of the day- my ‘friends’ actually believed Fluffy was the missing link- when in reality she made some cave man a very nice pet- and that was it.