1831- TEA PARTY?
So the other day we had a few
more primary elections- and the big news was the Dick Lugar loss [Repub from
Indiana].
Lugar was the longest serving
senator in congress- 6 terms.
He got booted by a Tea Party guy-
and the media made it sound like D day.
I mean the nonstop talk about the
country being taken over by the extreme right- that Lugar was such a fine man-
who was punished because he voted [often!] with Obama.
It’s funny- whenever the
Democrats have a big win- a ‘take over’ it gets described as a wonderful choice
that the country has made- a true generational paradigm shift.
When the President got elected-
and the Dems took the house and the senate- by huge majorities- you even had
conservative media Folk describing it
this way [Cokie Roberts].
Yet when the right side of the aisle
do a sweep- it’s the country throwing a ‘tantrum’ [yes- the main line news
described it this way when the Repubs took back the house in the mid terms].
I’m not a Tea Partier- or an
occupier- but from what I see the Tea Party folk are simply people who want
fiscal restraint.
They have no ideological social agenda-
just for the govt. to not spend more than it takes in.
Okay- sincere people might have a
disagreement on this- but to describe any organized grass roots group- who are
simply fiscal conservatives- to talk about them as a dangerous movement that
might bring the Republic down- well that seems to be a bit much.
Economy?
Well- I hate to say it [not
really] but I ‘told you so’.
Yeah- if you go back and read my
posts over the last 6 months- I felt like too many financial guys were hyping
the chances for a strong recovery this year.
I even mentioned that Larry
Kudlow- a straight shooter [business guy] was talking 3% growth for this year.
I said I thought it would be more
like 2.
Now- both of these numbers are
actually terrible!
But 3 would be better than 2.
Last night he changed his
prediction- yeah- 2.
Why?
To me there really should be no
surprise- when the Dow was at 13,200- I simply thought people were ignoring the
reality on the ground.
This morning it opens at a little
over 12,800- and I think the ‘real’ number should be in the low 12,ooo’s.
Why?
When we kicked off the year- some
analysts were hoping for new job growth to
be at around 250,000 jobs a month.
You need this many- every month-
for a few years before the economy can truly recover.
So- we did have a few months at
this number- and there was some good economic news as well- so I thought maybe
I was wrong- maybe the E.U. crisis will not be as bad- and if everything goes
good- more power to ya.
But then the month before last
something happened- the new jobs number was a little over 100,000- not good.
All the talking heads gave their
views- and it was possible that the number was a fluke [Sandra?]
But no- the number for last month
has come out- again- a little over a 100,000.
That’s bad.
The reason you need around
250,000 a month to really move the needle is because every month we have over
100,000 new people enter the job market.
These are people that just turned
working age and are new to the market.
So- if you are barley covering
jobs for them- or are a little under- in reality the unemployment goes up- not
down.
But we have seen the number go
down [from 8.2 to 8.1].
How can this be?
The way we calculate unemployment
is by the amount of people who are actually looking for jobs.
So- if 300,000 people drop out of
the hunt- then the number goes down on paper- when in reality it should go up.
So- it looks like we might be
stalling again.
Europe.
The E.U. zone problems are still
there- and they are our biggest market.
As a matter of fact- the 17
nations that make up e.u. are the biggest economy in the world.
So- if they are our biggest
customer- and if they are in trouble- we are too.
Just this past week 2 E.U. countries
voted out the leaders that wanted austerity [cut spending] and put in guys who
want to spend money they don’t have.
What does this mean?
It means if they keep going down
this road they will be facing a depression- and it looks like the ‘cut back
spending’ people are all on their way out.
So- as we see a slowing down in
our country- and a continuing disaster with our biggest trading partner- well
these things are not the recipe for a real recovery- and the insiders know it.
‘John- do you think we will be
able to deal with our debt/deficit’?
These past few weeks as I have
flipped the news/business channels- I have seen the Dems go point by point thru
the Repubs budget- and at every point where they wanted to cut- they said ‘they
want to cut your kids from free lunch- the elderly from their food [meals on
wheels]’.
I just heard Matthews [MSNBC] say
‘how can you vote for cuts that when someone’s mother goes to the hospital for
an operation- and you cut their Medicare and the doctor says- sorry- because of
the Repubs- you must die’.
Now- if the Dems keep playing this
game- if they do not try and deal with a very real problem- if they politicize
it like this- then yes- we will be just like Greece in a few more years.
Now- I’m not saying I support the
Ryan plan out of hand- but we need something fairly close.
Some say his plan does not cut
the debt fast enough.
Either way- the number 1 crisis facing
the country right now is our exploding debt- and the most notable organized
group- who has actually organized around this problem- is the Tea Party.
While I am not a hard right type
of guy- and do have some social justice issues that I support [I do not want to
kick kids and grandma out on the street] yet- if the most prominent ‘right
wing’ group is actually nominating people who will do something about the
number one problem our country is facing.
Then maybe we should stop
throwing up our hands and talking about the end of the world- maybe- just
maybe- it might be what the doctor ordered.
Note- Do me a favor, those who read/like
the posts- re-post them on other sites as well as the site you read them on.
Thanks- John. Don’t forget to ‘click’ the note App on my Facebook Profile- I
have posted lots.
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